What Are the Chances the Supreme Court Grants Certiorari?

If you’re considering appealing a case to the U.S. Supreme Court or advising a client on whether to pursue review, one of the first questions you’re likely to ask is: “What are the chances the Supreme Court will grant certiorari?” Understanding the certiorari grant rate is critical for planning litigation strategy, managing client expectations, and evaluating the potential value of Supreme Court advocacy.

What Is a Petition for Certiorari?

A petition for a writ of certiorari (often just called “cert”) is a formal request asking the Supreme Court of the United States to review the decision of a lower court. Unlike appeals as of right, certiorari is discretionary — meaning the Court chooses which cases it will hear based on specific legal criteria.

How Many Petitions Are Filed Each Term?

Each term, the Supreme Court receives thousands of certiorari petitions from litigants across the country. While the exact number can shift slightly from year to year, it’s common for the Court to receive roughly 7,000–8,000 petitions per term.

This high volume reflects the diverse range of federal and constitutional issues that arise in litigation nationwide.

How Many Cases Does the Court Actually Grant?

Despite the thousands of petitions filed, the Supreme Court grants certiorari to a very small fraction of cases. Typical figures include:

• About 50–80 petitions granted plenary review with oral argument each term.

• When additional orders and summary dispositions are added, total actions granting some form of review rarely exceed 100 or so cases.

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What Is the Likelihood of Certiorari Being Granted?

Overall Grant Rate

Because of the limited number of slots on the Court’s docket, the overall grant rate is extremely low:

• The Court usually grants certiorari in less than 1% of all petitions filed each term.

• Some older data reflected grant rates of 1–3% in earlier decades, depending on the mix of petitions and docket practices.

This makes bringing a case to the Supreme Court far more selective than many other stages of litigation. In fact, the likelihood of cert being granted in any given case is typically lower than many high-profile selective processes.

Why Are the Chances of Granting Certiorari So Low?

Several structural and practical reasons explain the Supreme Court’s low grant rate:

1. Discretionary Review

The Supreme Court’s jurisdiction is largely discretionary. After the Judiciary Act of 1925, the Court gained broad control over its docket, choosing to hear only those cases that involve significant federal questions or widespread legal impact.

2. Rule of Four

A petition is granted only if four of the nine justices vote to hear the case — a standard known as the Rule of Four — and even then the Court may deny review if it believes the case lacks broad importance.

3. Focus on Legal Importance

The Supreme Court typically focuses on:

• Circuit splits (conflicts among federal appeals courts),

• Important constitutional questions, or

• Issues of national legal significance.

Cases that lack these high-impact characteristics are far less likely to be granted review.

What Factors Can Improve the Chances of Certiorari?

While the overall grant rate is low, certain features make a petition more likely to be granted:

✔ Circuit Splits

A disagreement between federal appeals courts on the same legal issue is one of the strongest predictors that the Court will grant review.

✔ Issues of National Importance

Cases that affect broad sectors of the law — for example, major constitutional questions — are more attractive to the Court’s docket.

✔ High-Quality Advocacy

Well-framed petitions that persuasively explain the broader significance of a legal question and conform strictly to Supreme Court rules are more likely to attract favorable consideration.

✔ Relisting

Data show that cases that are relisted for multiple conferences with the justices tend to have significantly higher grant rates than those denied at the first conference.

What This Means for Litigants

Given the Supreme Court’s selectivity, parties and counsel should approach Supreme Court litigation strategically:

• Recognize that a denied petition does not mean a weak case, but often reflects docket priorities.

• Focus on clear circuit splits or unresolved federal questions.

• Consider early counsel with Supreme Court experience to craft compelling petitions.

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Work With Supreme Court Specialists

The odds of certiorari being granted will always be challenging, but strategic preparation and expert legal advocacy can make the difference in positioning a case for review.

To learn more about how our firm approaches Supreme Court petitions and appellate strategy, visit:👉 https://www.biazzolaw.com/biazzolawscotuspractice